Orbis World Computer Bridge Championship
Bulletin 13 Thursday, January 20, 2000
As in real life, there is not that much to choose between the card-
play capabilities of the various players -- the points are largely won
or lost in the auction.
Here is a deal from the 4th match of the Round-Robin, between GIB and
Bridge Buff.
Board 16. E/W vul. Dealer West.
S T 9 8
H K T 9 8
D T 7 4
C J 9 6
S 7 S A K Q 4 3
H 5 4 2 H A 3
D A K 6 3 2 D J 9 8 5
C A K 8 5 C Q 7
S J 6 5 2
H Q J 7 6
D Q
C T 4 3 2
West North East South
GIB Bridge-Buff GIB Bridge-Buff
... ... ... ...
Pass 6D Pass
?
After a lengthy relay sequence of 15 bids, GIB west has to make a
final decision. He knows that GIB east has four diamonds but not the
DQ, and that he rest of the hand is solid. What to bid? Strictly on
percentages, declarer should play for the drop of the queen, and he
will be successful 53% of the time.
Given the value of a Grand Slam bid and made, it would, on the face of
it, be right to bid a Grand if the chance of success is about 55% --
gaining 13 IMPs compared to losing 16 IMPs against a Small Slam. Thus,
on the given hand, it seems about even money whether or not to bid the
Grand. However, it is tacitly assumed that the opponents will in fact
bid the Small Slam, which is a big 'if'.
In the event, the GIBs bid 7D and were rewarded by finding the DQ
dropping singleton. Why bid seven? GIBs makers explain that he
analyzes double dummy and knows that he has a very good chance of
bringing in the diamonds without loss because, apart from a two-two
break or singleton queen, GIB east may hold DJ98x. Thus, he arrogantly
assumes that 7D will make in that case unless North holds DQ-third or
fourth. At the present time it's apparently too time-consuming to
actually figure out the true odds, and a look-up table approach for
these types of situations has not yet been implemented although it is
under consideration.
The reward turned out to be even greater than expected because Bridge
Buff bid only to 3NT, making seven. If the opponents rate to be less
enterprising in the auction, bidding perhaps only a game although a
six is cold, then the odds for bidding a Grand should considerably
exceed 55%. Thus, GIB took a big gamble and came out smelling like
roses.
How does one teach the machine to make the right decision? Very
simple: against less than top notch opposition, all you do is lower
the Grand Slam bonus from 750 to something more appropriate. Perhaps
it is possible to make such an adjustment 'on the go' in a long match
once the opponents' style has been assessed. An added advantage is
that the brothers GIB (Bee Gees?) don't even have to discuss such a
system change!
Space permitting, more deals, from the semifinal and final matches,
will be shown in future issues.
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